Prices of installed photovoltaic cells (PV) continue to drop, but the industry must change to make the technology economically-feasible as a sustainable source of electricity.
In its most recent
study of U.S. PV installations, Tracking the Sun IV, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) found the capacity-weighted average cost of installed PV systems in 2010 was $6.2/Watt, which is down from the 1998 cost of $11/Watt.
These costs reflect total system installations without accounting for incentives and rebates. Decreasing costs come, in part, from price reductions in the PV cells and modules themselves. This is good news for residents and businesses that want to invest in clean energy.
But is the news good enough?
Let’s look at example calculation done by the folks at Four Peaks Technologies in Scottsdale, Arizona. Four Peaks hosts a website, Solar Cell Central, which is an easy-to-use resource for renewable energy.
- In their estimate, a 5 kW residential installation including the PV modules, power inverter, and connections, will cost about $25,000. The PV cells have a useful life expectancy of 25 years, but the power inverter only about 12. Replacing the inverter brings the total outlay for the 25-year life up to about $27,000.
- The Four Peaks example describes about $18,000 in state and federal incentives
(taxes, cost-sharing, etc.).
- It also includes savings of $74 per month made possible by net metering with the local utility where standard rates are 11 ¢/kWh.
- If you disregard the incentives but take advantage of the $74 per month savings, then the payback period will be about 30 years ($27,000 investment = $74 per month x 12 months per year x 30 years = $26,640).
Thirty years is more than the PV cells’ useful life. In areas with electricity rates less than the
11 ¢/kWh average cost, the payback time is even longer. This is not sustainable.
But making it work is not impossible. I will discuss some of the possible solutions in the next post.