Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Continue to Rise

The latest Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.pdf by the World Meteorological Organization reports data showing that the worldwide concentrations of greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have continued to rise and "reached new highs in 2010" with reported averaged values of 389.0 ppb, 1,808 ppb, and 323.2 ppb, respectively.

The following illustration shows that although annual growth rate (ppm/year) varies widely (lower graph), the relative concentration of carbon dioxide has increased steadily (upper graph).  The report provides similar results for methane and nitrous oxide.  When coupled with the results of the International Energy Outlook 2011 (see Sustainability Law Talk post on Nov. 1, 2011) these data suggest a trend of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases.

WMO GHG Bulletin Graphs 1 Carbon.JPG

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Solar Energy Can Be Sustainable Part II: Environmental Impact

The environmental impact of solar energy systems includes the energy (and resulting GHG emissions) needed to produce and install the systems, the impact of mining raw materials and producing the systems, the environmental disruption of the installations, and, finally, the wastes generated when they no longer function.  These factors must be considered, and the adverse imacts reduced, if solar-produced electricity is to be a truly sustainable resource.

A report by the National Research Council of the National Academies, Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use, examined the often-ignored or "externalized" costs of various sources of energy.  These costs are not usually reflected in the market price of the energy but are, instead, imposed on the environment, human health, or society in general.  The report examined a few of the costs related to the production of electricy from solar energy.

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Solar Energy Can Be Sustainable Part I: Costs

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Two factors control sustainable implementation
of solar energy systems:
(1) cost per kWh of the systems and
(2) their long-term environmental impact.

This post focuses on costs. 

Without tax incentives and other government subsidies, many current solar systems cannot compete with the costs of traditional energy sources. However, developing solar energy systems with longer usable lives could shift the cost differential in favor of solar energy.

 

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Solar Energy is Not Sustainable, Yet

Prices of installed photovoltaic cells (PV) continue to drop, but the industry must change to make the technology economically-feasible as a sustainable source of electricity.

In its most recent Photo Cells on Roof.jpgstudy of U.S. PV installations, Tracking the Sun IV, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) found the capacity-weighted average cost of installed PV systems in 2010 was $6.2/Watt, which is down from the 1998 cost of $11/Watt.

These costs reflect total system installations without accounting for incentives and rebates. Decreasing costs come, in part, from price reductions in the PV cells and modules themselves.  This is good news for residents and businesses that want to invest in clean energy.

But is the news good enough?

Let’s look at example calculation done by the folks at Four Peaks Technologies in Scottsdale, Arizona. Four Peaks hosts a website, Solar Cell Central, which is an easy-to-use resource for renewable energy.

  • In their estimate, a 5 kW residential installation including the PV modules, power inverter, and connections, will cost about $25,000. The PV cells have a useful life expectancy of 25 years, but the power inverter only about 12. Replacing the inverter brings the total outlay for the 25-year life up to about $27,000.
  • The Four Peaks example describes about $18,000 in state and federal incentives
    (taxes, cost-sharing, etc.).
  • It also includes savings of $74 per month made possible by net metering with the local utility where standard rates are 11 ¢/kWh.
  • If you disregard the incentives but take advantage of the $74 per month savings, then the payback period will be about 30 years ($27,000 investment = $74 per month x 12 months per year x 30 years = $26,640).

Thirty years is more than the PV cells’ useful life.  In areas with electricity rates less than the
11 ¢/kWh average cost, the payback time is even longer. This is not sustainable.

But making it work is not impossible. I will discuss some of the possible solutions in the next post.

 

Kentucky City Invites Public Comment on Plan to Reduce Energy Use and Improve the Environment

A community-wide working group spearheaded by the Lexington Fayette Urban County Government (LFUCG) has released a draft plan, Empower Lexington, to reduce energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions. About 100 stakeholders in this central Kentucky community met over a two-year period to produce the draft plan, which is available for public comment. Download a copy of the draft plan and send comments here.

Five working groups representing a broad cross-section of the community developed major goals and implementation strategies. The five goals are:

  • Residential Sector: To provide residents with the resources and knowledge needed so they can live more sustainably, save energy and save money.
  • Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Sector: To promote energy efficiency and provide businesses and organizations with the knowledge and tools needed to save energy and money.
  • Land Use Food And Agriculture Sector: To preserve and enhance land and Bluegrass soils.
  • Transportation Sector: To provide an efficient, interconnected transportation system that improves quality of life, saves Fayette County citizens time and money, and moves people and goods with less energy.
  • Waste Sector: To pursue a zero-waste vision.

The group's survey of greenhouse gas emissions showed that in 2007 (the baseline) Lexington, Kentucky, generated about 6.5 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents. The relative contributions to these emissions by sector were 35.3% commercial; 28.4% residential; 23.3% transportation; 10% industry; and 2.9% waste and wastewater.

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Lexington's 6.5 million metric tons yield per capita emissions of about 23.4 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents.  The Empower Lexington plan proposes a 1% per year reduction in emissions in both per capita and overall emissions.

The draft plan includes 27 recommendations, each supported by one or more implementation strategies, that, if adopted would move the community toward those emission reduction goals. 

From 2008 to 2035 World Energy Use to Increase 53 %; Carbon Dioxide Up 43 %

In its International Energy Outlook 2011, the U. S. Energy Information Administration predicts that from 2008 to 2035, worldwide energy consumption will increase 53 percent to a total of 770 quadrillion Btu in 2035.  The largest class of energy sources are liquid fuels, including fossil fuels such as petroleum and coal-to-liquid and renewable fuels like ethanol and biodiesel.  Coal, the next largest source, is followed by natural gas, renewable sources (wind and hydropower), and nuclear power. 

Figure 2 World Energy Use by Source cropped.jpg

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Kentucky Middle School Models Sustainability Strategies

The new Turkey Foot Middle School in Kenton County, Kentucky, is a sustainability dream come true.  The new school utilizes an entire catalog of energy, water, and resource-friendly strategies.  Geothermal wells provide heating and cooling.  The majority of the rooms use natural lighting either from strategically-placed windows or light-funneling tubes.Turkeyfoot solar cells.JPG  Much of the roof is covered with flexible, thin-film photovoltaic cells, and the topmost portion of the roof is the site of more traditional, crystal photovoltaic panels.  The energy-conserving and energy-generating efforts pay off; the school received a several thousand dollar credit on their electricity bill!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Court Strikes Policies of EPA and Corps of Engineers on Mining-Related Permits

The U. S. District Court for the District of Columbia struck down policies and procedures adopted by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) regarding dredge and fill permits required under the Clean Water Act.  According to many commentators, the opinion in National Mining Association v. Jackson, No. 10-CV-1220 (D. D.C. Oct. 6, 2011), was a victory for the Appalachian coal industry because the permits at issue in the case involved surface coal mining operations, particularly “mountaintop removal mines.” The court ruled that the EPA had “exceeded the statutory authority conferred upon it by the Clean Water Act” and that the agencies had ignored the proper “notice and comment rulemaking requirements” of the Administrative Procedures Act.

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It was a procedural victory, but the mining industry’s celebration may be short-lived.  The issue before the court was not whether the policies and procedures were warranted by the facts related to the environmental impacts of filling hollows with mine spoil, and the court did not suggest that similar policies and procedures, if adopted according to statutes and procedural rules, would not be upheld.  The importance of the decision is the court’s reaffirmation that agencies may not adopt policies that are actually regulations without first going through the formal regulation development process.

(Photo from EPA presentation by Tom Welborn)

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Water Resources: What California Can Teach the East

Calif Irrigation iStock_000008485673XSmall.jpgCalifornia’s size, diversity of environments, population distribution, and history of water management issues make it a microcosm of what works, and what doesn’t work, in managing water resources. The Public Policy Institute of California recently released its exhaustive review, Managing California’s Water From Conflict to Reconciliation. The almost 500-page book details the history of California’s approaches to water law and regulation of water use.

 

It warns that unless California reforms its water policies the state is guaranteed to face five major water-related crises: extinction of native species; major floods; increased water shortages; increasing difficulties related to water quality; and deterioration of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Many of the report’s strategies for improving California’s water management systems rely on integrating competing value systems, information, and public actions. They also include potential modifications to existing state and federal laws.

California’s experience can teach us a lot as the formerly water-rich east faces its own water resource challenges. Balancing competing interests is difficult enough when working within one state. The challenge is all that more difficult when water resources cross multiple state lines. For example, in 2007, a drought in the southeast caused a drop in water levels in Georgia’ Lake Lanier, then the source of Atlanta’s drinking water as well as necessary river flow for rivers in Georgia, Alabama, and Florida.

The drought spawned arguments and legal action pitting the needs of municipal water supplies, endangered species, and power generation against the other as each interest vied for its share of the limited water resource. California faces these issues on a recurring basis. We can see how the lessons learned in California could be applied on a regional, multi-state basis in the east.

Cellulosic Biofuels an Important Footnote in Obama Administration's 2012 Budget

iStock_000009410718XSmall.jpgThe Obama administration’s budget for fiscal year 2012 proposes over $6 billion to support clean energy.  But it appears that only about $340 million of this investment is planned for sustainable biofuels such as cellulosic ethanol.

Erin Voegele has reviewed the budget request by Secretary of Energy, Steven Chu.  The budget request includes $10 million for analysis and sustainability and $150 million to support the Cellulosic Biofuels Reverse Auction Initiative.  Not All Biofuels Are Green, but cellulosic biofuels have great potential to be beneficial in terms of energy return and greenhouse gas reduction.

The Cellulosic Biofuels Reverse Auction (PDF) has been slow to ramp up.  In fact, when the DOE published a proposed rule on the topic, the only commenter was from the cellulosic leader, Dupont Danisco Cellulosic Ethanol, LLC.  In light of the many beneficial aspects of cellulosic biofuels production it is disappointing that the budget invests so little there.  Nonetheless, the infusion of funds into this previously unfunded strategy may help jump start research and development.